More electricity needed to meet growing demand
Will our nation’s electric system continue to provide
a reliable, safe and affordable supply of power
in coming years? This question was asked most
recently by the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation (NERC), a nonprofit organization
charged with monitoring America’s power system
reliability.
In October 2007, NERC
published its annual
Long-Term Reliability
Assessment, which provides
a forecast on how
much electric generating
capacity will be available
during the next decade.
The report also estimates
how much electricity people
will use over that
time.
The organization’s
findings revealed that
current plans to build
power plants and highvoltage
transmission lines
lag behind the expected growth in power consumption.
They also match a U.S. Department of Energy
forecast that demand for electricity nationally will
increase by 40 percent during the next 22 years.
Even if the country can dramatically increase efficiency
and conservation programs — electricity
demand over time will continue to grow as our economy
and population grows.
NERC warned, “Demand for electricity is expected
to increase over the next 10 years by approximately
18 percent in the United States, but confirmed generation
capacity will increase by only 8.5 percent;
expansion and strengthening of the transmission
system (also) continues to lag demand growth and
expansion of generating resources in most areas.”
To fully grasp the impact of that statement, consider
these facts about generation, transmission and
the demand for electricity:
- Electricity can’t be stored — it must be used
immediately and flow continuously. Electric energy
generated at a power plant flows through high-voltage
transmission lines to substations, where it is
reduced to a lower voltage for safe distribution to
homes and businesses. Reliability refers to the availability
of electricity when and where consumers need
it, without interruption.
- Not every power plant generates electricity all of
the time. Across the country on any given day, it is
normal for numerous plants to be shut down due to
a broad range of issues, such as scheduled maintenance,
fuel availability or price, or low water levels
at a dam where a hydroelectric power plant operates.
- High-voltage transmission lines carrying electricity
from generating plants to distribution substations
need regular and emergency maintenance.
Vegetation management
to clear rights-of-way, or
weather events, such as
ice storms or tornadoes,
can interrupt the flow of
electricity on these
“power highways.”
For consumers to
receive reliable electric
service, a certain amount
of extra capacity always
must be available. NERC
has stated that generation
capacity margins should
average 15 percent or
more. In other words,
generation plants should
be able to produce approximately 15 percent more
electricity than consumers are expected to use during
times of peak demand — the electric utility industry’s
equivalent of rush-hour traffic. This helps
ensure sufficient power in an emergency or if a specific
power plant needs to be shut down for service.
The NERC report also found that even if all power
plants under construction now are completed on time
and begin generating electricity in the amounts slated,
and new construction ramps up according to
plans now underway, generation capacity margins
will drop below minimum reliability margin levels in
certain areas of the United States within the next
two to three years.
Regions affected include California, Rocky
Mountain states, New England, Texas, the
Southwest and Midwest. Other parts of our country
could face a reliability gap a few years later. In western
Canada, the problem could become apparent to
consumers within two years.
In addition to the needed power supply, transmission
line capacity (what’s needed to deliver the
power) is projected to increase by a bit less than 9
percent in the United States — and by just 4.8 percent
in Canada during the next 10 years.
All of this means that a sudden surge in weathercaused
disruptions or a batch of construction delays
could leave consumers facing immediate and recurring
disruptions in their supply of electricity.
Glenn English, CEO of the National Rural Electric
Cooperative Association, believes the NERC study
shows that the nation’s lawmakers and regulators
must quickly come to grips with the difficult challenges
of meeting future
energy demand.
“The generation and
transmission needed to
supply everyone with electricity
will get built,”
English said. “Electric Coops,
as not-for-profit, consumer-
owned utilities, have
an obligation to serve. The
issue is how we manage
rising costs associated not
only with the fuels needed
to produce electricity and construction materials like
steel, copper and concrete, but climate change as
well. Policymakers must seek out solutions that are
feasible technologically and can be sustained economically
— remedies that will allow electric Co-ops
to continue providing reliable, affordable power in
an environmentally responsible fashion.”
In its report, NERC examines other significant
problems that could affect reliability. These include
the need to attract well-trained younger workers to
replace the aging workforce of electric utility professionals,
and how to deal with renewable energy concerns
such as intermittency — the fact that wind
blows only about 40 percent of the time and generally
not on hot, humid
weekdays in the summer
when power consumption
skyrockets, and the sun
doesn’t shine during
nighttime hours.
“Beginning now, start
doing everything you can
to use electricity wisely,”
NERC encourages consumers,
such as turning
off lights when not in use,
replacing old appliances
and equipment with more energy-efficient models
and managing electricity use carefully.
Source: North American Electric Reliability Corporation,
National Rural Electric Cooperative Association
Nancy S. Grant is a freelance writer based near
Louisville, KY, and is a member of the American Society of
Journalists and Authors. Jennifer Taylor is writer of consumer
and cooperative affairs at the National Rural Electric
Cooperative Association.
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